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History On Vacation

What experience and history teach is this — that people and governments never have learned anything from history, or acted on principles deduced from it …
— Hegel
We solved Hegel’s pesky problem in 1998 when Francis Fukuyama posited the prospect of universal liberal democracy, along with it, the end of history:
What we may be

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Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth

As I start this post, I am naming it “Why I’m on US recession watch despite 2% growth”. I don’t know if that name will stick when I publish this piece; nonetheless, that is the theme I am trying to get across. When I look at the economic data, it shows a near-term in the 2% growth range – stall speed or slightly below. But when I look at the same data for medium-term clues, I still see reasons to be concerned, and, therefore, I continue to be on recession watch. Finally, I am not at all sure the Fed sees the picture as I do. December was a policy mistake. And I can’t rule out others going forward.
When I start a forward-looking post like this, I first like to look back and remind myself of what I had been saying in previous forward-looking

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