- How elliott wave analysis helps you find opportunities http://ow.ly/445o #
- Stronger dollar: a monday morning puzzle http://ow.ly/4451 #
- Sums doled out to Wall Street should have been used to keep small businesses' workers on the job. #
- Do you know where the global stock markets are heading? http://ow.ly/445D #
- Americans rally nationwide to end the fed http://ow.ly/4b7B #
- Mint Map: Income by State: With unemployment rates soaring, the days when you could be assured of finding a job .. http://tinyurl.com/dzlsdu #
- Where are the stock markets headed? The answer may surprise you. Free 120 page Global Market Perspective report: http://ow.ly/445F #
- The Deflation Times Twitter Updates for 2009-04-27:
Think That Central Banks Move the Markets? Think Again: Apr.. http://tinyurl.com/d2yfdf #
- @nicholsong Yeap, the visual guide to deflation is not perfect. #
- @robertfreedland No worries. #
- Think That Central Banks Move the Markets? Think Again: April 23, 2009
By Mark Galasiewski The following is exce.. http://tinyurl.com/ddcnvf #
- @robertfreedland Gold is not an inflation nor deflation hedge. Gold is on its own: http://ow.ly/43Sj #
- @robertfreedland Article compares gold value during past recessions and expansions. You'll be surprised at the findings: http://ow.ly/43SD #
- A visual guide to deflation: http://ow.ly/43Rk #
- The Four Scenarios: Debt Deflation, Hyperinflation, Quadrillion Play and Muddle Through: http://ow.ly/43Po #
- Is it just me or are we seeing deflation come up more often everywhere? On TV news, around the water cooler, bloggers blogging, tweets ... #
- Spanish clothes price war fuels deflation fears http://ow.ly/446C #
- Gold: the "safe haven" that never was: http://ow.ly/43TP #
- A global garage sale and price wars continue to contribute towards deflation. #
- Free 120 page global market perspective report http://ow.ly/445B #
- 58% of businesses are planning wage freezes this year in Britain. http://ow.ly/447s #
- What does the current stock market rally really tell you? http://ow.ly/43YE #
- Can the private business sector (i.e. small businesses) bear all of the pain that comes with deflation? #
- Deflation goes global: The rate of inflation is now close to zero in the United States and several other major countries. http://ow.ly/4482 #
- Is Your Bank Working For You or Against You?: Now that taxpayers have bailed out the banks, they are on your sid.. http://tinyurl.com/daubfs #
- Are you wondering why the U.S economy seems to be slow in recovering? Do bailouts undermine stimulus efforts? #
- 5 markets where the elliott wave principle forecasts best -- and why http://ow.ly/444W #
- Is it China that's giving gold strength? Is there strength in gold? #
- Get 120 pages of free charts and analysis for every major world market. Doors close April 30th. http://ow.ly/445t #
- Fed to weigh options for reviving economy http://ow.ly/44dt #
The latest disease outbreak news from the World Health Organization from 27th April gives an alarming picture of swine influenza A(H1N1). Currently in the US there have been 40 laboratory confirmed cases, with a further 26 confirmed cases in Mexico, 6 confirmed cases in Canada and one in Spain. There have been 6 deaths, all in Mexico. That's a total number of 73 cases with a mortality rate of 9.6%.
The media is whipping up a public storm with sensationalist articles typified by a lack of background information. People are worried, and supplies of Tamiflu are in demand.
To put this in perspective, there have been zero deaths to date in the US of swine flu. Most cases have been mild. In contrast, many people die directly from various other strains of influenza every year (directly from influenza, figures do not include deaths from pneumonia). In 1998: 1,724, in 1999: 1,665, in 2000: 1,765 and in 2001: 257. Despite widespread use of flu vaccines, these deaths continue year after year. At the end of the flu season in January 2004 the mortality rate was 10.2%
There is an explanation of the media and public attention to swine flu generated at the moment. To see why so much attention, one needs to look at overall social mood and to see what that mood currently is the best indicator is the DJIA. Currently the US economy, driven by social mood, is in a downturn of super cycle degree. During large downturns like this social mood turns sour, the predominant emotion is fear. Therefore events that would be shrugged off in better times are amplified by that fear.
If you want learn more about this approach to social events a good place to start is Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction by Robert R Prechter.
World Health Organization Update 8, 21 January 2004
How Many Americans Really Die Of The Flu Each Year? with link to stats from www.lungusa.org (PDF file)
April 23, 2009
By Mark Galasiewski
The following is excerpted from Elliott Wave International’s Global Market Perspective. The full 120-page publication, which features forecasts for every major world market, is available free until April 30. Visit Elliott Wave International to download it free.
Conventional wisdom says that central banks can influence or even direct financial markets and the macroeconomy. The very existence of Elliott waves challenges such assumptions. For if markets responded to every central bank directive, how could Elliott waves exist? Parallel trend channels, Fibonacci price relationships, the similarity of form between waves of different sizes and time periods—none of that would be possible. Central bank decisions would have to coincide perfectly with turning points in Elliott waves, and we know that just doesn’t happen. But even without using waves, we can expose the conventional wisdom for the fallacy that it is.
Take, for example, this assertion in a recent article in a U.K. economic weekly: “Part of the aim of central banks in driving down interest rates is to encourage a greater risk appetite among investors.' Two key assumptions underlie that statement: a) central banks determine interest rates; and b) lower interest rates can increase society’s appetite for risk.
To see how the first assumption is false, let’s take a look at the daily chart of Australian interest rate data. It duplicates a study that Elliott Wave International has often done with U.S. interest rate data. It shows how movements in the cash target rate set by Australia’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), appear to follow those in 3-month Australian Treasury Bills. After decisive moves up in T-bills from 2006 to early 2008, for example, the RBA faithfully raised its target. T-bills have since led the RBA during the financial crisis of the past year. In fact, the record indicates that the RBA almost always follows T-bills over time.
The proper conclusion to draw is not that the RBA has orchestrated the decline in rates since the early 1980s—but that it’s been riding it. During good times, central bankers look like geniuses; during bad times, they get tarred and feathered. Closer to the truth is that their interest-rate decisions are not proactive, but reactive, and that they continually follow in the footsteps of the market for lack of any other useful guide.
Now let’s look at the second assumption: that lower interest rates increase society’s appetite for risk. A simple glance at the weekly chart shows this assumption to be false. After the 1987 crash, the ASX All Ordinaries actually rallied for two years on rising rates and then sold off through 1990 on falling rates. Stocks then rose in 1991 on continued falling rates and sold off in 1992 on even lower rates. Continue following the chart below you will see that there is no consistent correlation between the direction of interest rates and that of the stock market.
The myth of central bank potency is so pervasive that conventional analysts can’t even imagine a better explanation for price trends: that the market is the dog wagging its central bank tail, not the other way around.
For more information, download Elliott Wave International’s FREE issue of Global Market Perspective, available until April 30. The 120-page publication covers every major world market, global interest rates, international currencies, metals, energy and more.
Mark Galasiewski is the editor of Elliott Wave International’s Asian Financial Forecast and member of EWI’s Global Market Perspective team covering Asian stock indexes.
Remember when America elected its first black president? The country was in a state of hope. Obama had one of, it not the, strongest job approval ratings of any elected US President in history at 69% (Gallup poll, Jan 26, 2009). Obamamania swept the country, as Americans saw hope for their economy in their first black president.
If you are a proponent of Socionomics you would have voted for the presidential candidate you liked LEAST. Why?
The stock market is a barometer of social mood, and its movements follow predictable patterns, or waves. The US had just finished a series of waves up, and was beginning a large corrective trend down when Obama became president. Social mood had just turned, and despite a surge of popularity, no one, not even the charismatic Barak Obama, could change the direction of social mood.
From a popularity perspective, it did not matter who moved into the White House when George Bush moved out. Whoever got the job was in for a thankless and seemingly luckless time. Because social mood moves in waves, and is not moved by news or presidents but by its own intrinsic wave structure which must be borne out.
The 'Tea Parties' held around the country on April 15th are the first countrywide protests against government policy so far. Specifically, they are protests against Obama and the policies enacted by the administration and congress. That congress has spent so much taxpayer money on bailouts, trying to fix a broken economy, is arousing public anger. And its going to get worse.
Obamamania is waning and will be over soon. We are in a larger downward trend, but the longest sharpest downward wave, wave C, is yet to come.
The personality of C waves is strong and destructive. They are deeper and harder than A waves and follow the phony 'recovery' of B waves which we are now experiencing. 'The illusions held thoughout waves A and B tend to evaporate and fear takes over' (Elliot Wave Principle, Frost and Prechter, pg 83). The illusion that the government can fix the financial crisis will evaporate. along with Obama's popularity. Fear for the financial future of the US will take over.
The Tea Party protests have so far been peaceful. We can expect many further protests, on a more massive scale. We can expect less peacefulness as social mood turns darker, as fear becomes the predominant emotion.
The government cannot bail out the economy, whatever the government tries to do will have the opposite effect. People are realising that the US government cannot indefinitely increase debt to create affluence. The two ideas are in juxtaposition. They will realise that their future, and their childrens future have been sold off to Wall St and they will be rightly angry.
Once each year or so, our friends at Elliott Wave International do something unheard-of in the world of financial analysis – they give it away for free!
But it always ends soon after it starts, so your time to get more than 100 pages of free analysis and forecasts on every major world market is running out.
This time they've upped the ante.
For the first time ever, EWI is giving away one month of its most popular global analysis publication, a 120-page "little black book" of investment insights called Global Market Perspective, which includes EWI's three regional publications:
- The U.S. Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($19/month value)
- The European Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($29/month value)
- The Asian-Pacific Elliott Wave Financial Forecast ($31/month value)
PLUS, the 120-page book includes analysis culled straight from EWI's professional-grade Specialty Services, each of which is valued at $199/month. This means you also get analysis and forecasts for the following global markets:
- World stock markets (China, Japan, Korea, U.S, France, Britain and more)
- Global interest rates (Australia, Europe, Japan, U.S.)
- International currency relationships (U.S. Dollar, Euro rates, Swiss Francs, Japanese Yen and more)
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- And so much more!
This is truly a very rare occasion, and it only lasts for just a few more days. Whether you use Elliott or not, we highly recommend you stop by the webpage below and take advantage of this limited-time, completely free offer.
About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.