The latest disease outbreak news from the World Health Organization from 27th April gives an alarming picture of swine influenza A(H1N1). Currently in the US there have been 40 laboratory confirmed cases, with a further 26 confirmed cases in Mexico, 6 confirmed cases in Canada and one in Spain. There have been 6 deaths, all in Mexico. That's a total number of 73 cases with a mortality rate of 9.6%.
The media is whipping up a public storm with sensationalist articles typified by a lack of background information. People are worried, and supplies of Tamiflu are in demand.
To put this in perspective, there have been zero deaths to date in the US of swine flu. Most cases have been mild. In contrast, many people die directly from various other strains of influenza every year (directly from influenza, figures do not include deaths from pneumonia). In 1998: 1,724, in 1999: 1,665, in 2000: 1,765 and in 2001: 257. Despite widespread use of flu vaccines, these deaths continue year after year. At the end of the flu season in January 2004 the mortality rate was 10.2%
There is an explanation of the media and public attention to swine flu generated at the moment. To see why so much attention, one needs to look at overall social mood and to see what that mood currently is the best indicator is the DJIA. Currently the US economy, driven by social mood, is in a downturn of super cycle degree. During large downturns like this social mood turns sour, the predominant emotion is fear. Therefore events that would be shrugged off in better times are amplified by that fear.
If you want learn more about this approach to social events a good place to start is Socionomics: The Science of History and Social Prediction by Robert R Prechter.
Sources:
World Health Organization Update 8, 21 January 2004
How Many Americans Really Die Of The Flu Each Year? with link to stats from www.lungusa.org (PDF file)
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