Many infamous authoritarian regimes emerged during or after big bear markets
June 15, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

Fear and uncertainty that drive a severe bear market are the same emotions which can set the stage for authoritarianism, in most any nation.

"Bear markets of sufficient size appear to bring about a desire to slaughter groups of successful people. In 1793-1794, radical Frenchmen guillotined countless members of high society. In the 1930s, Stalin slaughtered Ukrainians. In the 1940s, Nazis slaughtered Jews. In the 1970s, Communists in Cambodia and China slaughtered the affluent. In 1998, after their country's financial collapse, Indonesians went on a rampage and slaughtered Chinese merchants." - Bob Prechter, Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, p. 270

Why do authoritarian tendencies emerge only during bear markets in stocks?

"As society becomes more fearful, many individuals yearn for the safety and order promised by strong, controlling leaders." - The Socionomist, May 2010

Bob Prechter's new science of socionomics explains that stock market fluctuations mirror trends in people's collective mood. In simple terms, when the market is buoyant, it indicates positive social mood; the opposite when a bear market takes over.

The fascinating part is that because the stock market and social mood trend closely together, a forecaster can apply Elliott wave analysis to both -- and predict both.

Generally, widespread brutalities and wars do not follow the first phase of a bear market. Extreme violence, when it does occur, often follows the worst part of the market's downturn -- like the end of the Great Depression, a negative social mood period that ultimately ushered in World War II.

But even during the first phase, a negative social mood grows. So, if a forecaster determines correctly where in the wave structure social mood resides, he can make educated forecasts about what will follow in society -- given what has happened before under similar social mood trends.

Authoritarianism is a subject of heated discussions these days, which makes it a timely topic for a socionomic study. The latest, two-part issue of the monthly Socionomist gives you just that: A look at historic trends and specific forecasts for the years ahead.

Learn How to Anticipate and Prepare for Political Conflict and War, Bull Markets and Bear Markets. The 118-page Independent Investor eBook covers a vast array of investment topics and exposes myths that mainstream investors accept as fact. Once you learn the real cause of conflict and war, you might be surprised how the stock market plays a key role in forecasting major social events. Click here to download the 118-page Independent Investor eBook for FREE.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

May 14, 2010

By Editorial Staff, Elliott Wave International

The following market analysis is courtesy of Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave International. Elliott Wave International is currently offering Bob's recent Elliott Wave Theorist, free.

Continuing—and Looming—Deflationary Forces
The Fed and the government quite effectively advertise their efforts to inflate the supply of money and credit. But deflationary forces, to most eyes, are invisible. I thought I would point some of them out.

1. Banks Are about 95 Percent Invested in Mortgages

Figure 4, courtesy of Bianco Research, shows that U.S. banks used to be fairly conservative, holding 40 percent of their assets in Treasury securities. This large investment in federal government debt, the basis of our “monetary” “system”, served as a stop-gap against deflation. In 1950, even if mortgages had been wiped out by a factor of 80 percent, banks still would have been 50% solvent and 40% liquid. Today, banks hold federal agency securities (backed mostly by mortgages), mortgage-backed securities (meaning complicated packages of mortgages), plain old mortgages that they financed themselves, and a few business loan contracts. If these mortgages become wiped out by a factor of 80 percent, which in turn would cause many of the business loans to go into default, the banks will be only about 22% solvent and 1% liquid. I believe the coming wipeout will be bigger than that, but let’s be conservative for now. The point is that, unlike Treasuries, IOUs with homes as collateral can fall in dollar value, and such IOUs are pretty much the only paper backing U.S. bank deposits. The potential for deflation here is tremendous.

2. More Mortgages Are Going Under

It has been well publicized recently that commercial real estate has been plunging in value as business tenants walk away from their leases, leaving properties empty. Zisler Capital Partners reports, “Returns were negative for the past five quarters, the longest streak since 1992. Property prices have fallen by 30 percent to 50 percent from their peaks. Much of the debt is likely worth about 50 percent of par, or less.” (Bloomberg, 11/11) Needless to say, the fact that commercial mortgages are plunging in value is stressing banks even further, which in turn restricts their lending. This trend is deflationary.

3. People Are Walking away from Their Homes and Mortgages

Great numbers of people are ceasing to pay their mortgages, even if they have the money to pay them. When people walk away from their mortgages, they are reneging on a promise to pay the interest on the loan. … Refusal to pay interest is deflationary. When banks can’t collect fully on their loan principal, as is the case by law in the above-named states, it is deflationary. Even in states where banks can go after other assets held by borrowers, default is still deflationary if the borrowers are broke. The reason is that, in all these cases, the value of the loan contract falls to the marketable value of the collateral, and a contraction in the value of debt is deflation.

Some people who walk away from their mortgages purposely damage the homes when they leave. New businesses have sprung up to take on the job of cleaning up the houses that former occupants trashed as they left. Angry defaulters are stripping coils out of stoves, pulling electrical wiring out of walls, ripping fixtures out of bathrooms, yanking seats off of toilets, punching holes in walls and leaving rotting food in the fridge. (AP, 8/9) Such actions, and the threat of more such actions, lower the value of the collateral behind mortgage debts, thereby lowering the value of mortgages, which is deflationary.

4. Bank Lending Standards Have Stayed Restrictive

As people default on mortgages, banks are tightening lending standards. Figure 7 shows that banks loosened credit standards from late 2003 through the summer of 2007. By the end of that time, you could borrow money if you were breathing and could operate a ball-point pen. Banks have been tightening credit standards ever since. The rate of tightening peaked in October 2008, but the graph shows that over the past year various banks have either left their new, tighter standards in place or continued to tighten their standards further. Across the board, it is harder to get a loan, and it’s staying that way. Lending restrictions reduce the credit supply. This condition is deflationary.

5. Banks Are Cashing Out of the Credit-Card Business

Articles have revealed that banks are doing everything they can to get credit-card debtors to pay off their cards. They are raising penalties and rates, lowering ceilings and otherwise bugging their clients to pay up, one way or another: Transfer your debt to another bank’s card; default; pay us off; we don’t care which. And it’s working. Through September, consumers have paid down credit card balances for 12 months in a row. Figure 8 shows the new trend. The credit-card business was another formerly humming engine of credit that is sputtering. You might call the new program “cash from clunkers,” and it is deflationary.

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You'll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Yes, You Heard Us Right
April 29, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

Everywhere you look, the mainstream financial experts are pinning on their "WIN 2" buttons in a show of solidarity against what they see as the number one threat to the U.S. economy: Whip Inflation Now.

There's just one problem: They're primed to fight the wrong enemy. Fact is, despite ten rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board to record low levels plus $13 trillion (and counting) in government bailout money over the past three years -- the Demand For and Availability Of credit is plunging. Without a borrower or lender, the massive supply of debt LOSES value, bringing down every exposed investment like one long, toppling row of dominoes.

This is the condition known as Deflation.

Bob Prechter uncovered more than a dozen "value depreciating" developments underway in the U.S. economy as the two main engines of credit expansion sputter: Banks and Consumers. Here's a preview of his findings contained the free report, The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010:

• A riveting chart of Treasury Holdings as a Percentage of US Chartered Bank Assets since 1952 shows how "safe" bank deposits really are. In short: today's banks are about 95% invested in mortgages via the purchase of federal agency securities. Unlike Treasuries, IOU's with homes as collateral have "tremendous potential" to fall in dollar value.
• Loan Availability to Small Businesses has fallen to the lowest level since the interest rate crises of 1980. In Bob Prechter's own words: "The means of debt repayment [via business growth] are evaporating, which implies further deflationary pressure within the banking system."
• An all-inclusive close-up of the Number Of Banks Tightening Their Lending Standards since 1997 has this message to impart: Since peaking in October 2008, lending restrictions have soared, thereby significantly reducing the overall credit supply.
• Both residential and commercial mortgages are plummeting as home/business owners walk away from their leases at an increasing rate.
• The major sources of bank revenue -- consumer credit and state taxes -- are plunging as more people opt to pay DOWN their debt. Also, a compelling chart of leveraged buyouts since 1995 shows a third catalyst for the credit binge -- private equity -- on the decline.

All that is just the beginning. For more information on the deflationary shift underway in the financial landscape, download Bob Prechter's free report, The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read in 2010. It contains 13 pages of commentary, riveting charts, and unparalleled insight into these urgent market matters.

Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. EWI's 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI's educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet's richest free content programs, Club EWI.

May 12, 2010

By Robert Folsom, Elliott Wave International

Please join me to consider a time in the stock market that lasted just under three years: 32 months, to be precise.

During this period a series of powerful rallies stand out clearly on a price chart. The shortest of these rallies was four weeks, the longest more than five months.

I can even list seven of these rally episodes, with the number of calendar days and percentage gains.

1. 152 days     +52%
2. 28 days       +11%
3. 77 days       +19%
4. 69 days       +27%
5. 31 days       +30%
6. 35 days       +39%
7. 28 days       +27%

This information obviously seems to paint a bullish picture: The stock market was in double-digit rally mode during 43% of the total calendar days in question.

But in fact, those rallies were the days when the bear was catching his breath. The market was the Dow Jones Industrials; the overall period was from November 1929 to July 1932. It devastated investors. The Dow lost 80% of its value. Yes, that includes the rallies listed above.

I said that these rallies stand out on a price chart, and indeed they do -- it's just that the declines stand out even more. There's virtually no "sideways" action. Prices moved rapidly in one direction or the other.

You can see the chart for yourself in the first issue (April issue, page 4) of the two-part series Bob Prechter has published in The Elliott Wave Theorist. Part One was in April, "A Deadly Bearish Big Picture." The final sentence of that issue said Part Two "will update the stunning long-term Elliott wave picture."

Bob just published Part Two. It completes the "Big Picture" he has now delivered to subscribers.

The past doesn't "define" the present or the future, but it sure does provide context. No analyst alive today understands this better than Bob Prechter.

Believe me when I say that the charts and analysis in this two-issue series are unique. The word "stunning" only begins to describe what you'll read.

Get Robert Prechter's Latest Analysis -- Click Here to Download His 10-Page Market Letter FREE For a limited-time, you can download Robert Prechter's April 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist, the first in a two-part series entitled "Deadly Bearish Big Picture," for FREE! Click here to learn more and download your free Theorist.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts lead by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The firm's history suggests its vulnerability in periods of negative social mood.

April 23, 2010

By Elliott Wave International

In the November 2009 issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, co-editors Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall published a careful study of Goldman Sachs history -- and made a sobering forecast for its future.

In this special three-part series, we will release the entire Special Report to you free of charge. Part III is below. You can find the entire series here: EWI forecasts Goldman Sachs company troubles.

Special Section: A Flickering Financial Star, Part III

With the market's downtrend recently in abeyance, these transgressions failed to capture the imagination of the public or the scrutiny of law enforcement. But the extreme recriminatory power of the next leg down in social mood suggests that Goldman's dealings will become a lighting rod for public discontent.

In January 2008, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted that Goldman's success relative to the rest of Wall Street pointed "to the eventual appearance of a much larger public relations problem in the future. In the negative-mood times that accompany bear markets, conflict of interest charges will come pouring out." The recent revelations about Paulson's and Friedman's actions are exactly that to which we were referring. Additional claims against Goldman -- including front-running its clients and profiting from inside information -- are already too numerous to mention. As the bear market intensifies, the firm will attract scrutiny as easily as it brushed it off in the mid-2000s.

Based strictly on the form of its advance, a July 2007 issue of The Short Term Update called for a peak in Goldman shares at $234. Goldman managed one more new high to $250 in October 2007; it then fell 81 percent to a low of $47 in November 2008. The stock market's wave 2 rise brought Goldman back to $193 on October 14. Its affinity for marching in lock-step with the DJIA strongly suggests that Goldman will decline to below its November 2008 low.

Another key socionomic trait is for the most successful recipients of bull-market goodwill to be singled out for special treatment in the ensuing decline. Even fellow financiers are taking aim. In a not-so-veiled reference to Goldman, one Wall Street titan said that big profits made by investment banks are "hidden gifts" from the state, and resentment of such firms is "justified." Let the bloodletting begin.

Let the Buyers (of Stock) Beware

Goldman's heavy involvement in the hedge fund industry is another bull market asset that will become a huge liability in the next wave lower. In January, when some minor insider trading charges were brought forward, Elliott Wave Financial Forecast stated that they were only a first puff of "what promises to be a huge mushroom cloud." The next much larger puff, and its ability to quickly envelop the financial markets, was put on display as the hedge fund Galleon Group went from insider trading charges to complete liquidation in a matter of days. The headlines are already pointing to a potential chain-reaction: "Galleon Wiretaps Rattle Funds as Insider Trading Targeted." Reports indicate that the Galleon investigation actually began in November 2007, one month after the start of Cycle wave c.

Back in 2007 when Elliott Wave Financial Forecast talked about the "conspicuously tight knit" nature of hedge fund participants, we added that in bear market times, these "men will turn on each other out of a need to survive." According to reports, that is exactly what happened. The central witness "who brought down the hedge fund" suffers from "financial woes" and "is working with law enforcement in hopes of receiving a lighter sentence." The bear market is already squeezing the most aggressive bulls from every angle. New legislative and administrative initiatives are being proposed, and in some cases enacted, that will reduce executive pay at bailed-out financial institutions by up to 90% and attempt to shift the cost of bailouts from taxpayers to other large financial companies. The most far reaching "reforms" probably won't take effect until later, when the decline is over or nearly so.

Finance led the way down in 2007; so we shouldn't be surprised by its apparent willingness to do so again. ... This time however, the decline will be a third wave at Primary degree, which should be far more intense than the initial Primary-degree decline from October 2007 to March 2009. Stay tuned.